Iran's Demographic Change and its Security Implications for the Future

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 faculty member, social sciences faculty, Yazd university

2 Demography candidate in Yazd university, social science faculty

3 Phd. Candidate . social incenses , Yazd university

Abstract

One of the dimensions of security in each community is its military power. The population is potentially linked with defense and security in two directions: population size and structure. Despite rapid changes in the determinants of population size and structure in Iran, It is expected that in the future size and structure of the country's population change rapidly. Changes in population growth and volume have been analyzed . According to various assumptions up to the horizon of 2066 population projection was conducted. Results showed that population age structure is moving towards the aging population, Population projection by component method based on three different fertility scenarios showed that future fertility changes will play a decisive role in demographic changes in the future of the country. The main points in the future developments of the country's population are: the balance in the population growth rate, the increase in the number of elderly in the population, decline in young people's force- especially in the low fertility scenario. higher educated population, maintaining high economic levels, reducing the number of Soldiers are eligible for military service and the number of people with military capability is reduced in the low fertility scenario. Although the population potential of the country's military and defense capabilities is slightly reduced , the military force will be more educated. Since the military power of nations today is based on skills, the future status of the military force in Iran despite its reduction in quantity in terms of quality is promising.

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References

 
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