تغییرات جمعیتی ایران و پیامدهای امنیتی آن در آینده

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار جمعیت‌شناسی دانشگاه یزد

2 دانشجوی دکتری جمعیت‌شناسی دانشگاه یزد

چکیده

یکی از ابعاد امنیت در هر جامعه‌ توان نظامی آن است. جمعیت به صورت بالقوه از دو جهت با دفاع و امنیت در رابطه‌ می‌باشد؛ حجم و ساختار سنی جمعیت. در مقاله حاضر، با استفاده از داده‌های سرشماری 1395-1335 کشور به تحلیل تغییر رشد و حجم جمعیت در گذشته تا کنون پرداخته شده و بر اساس روش‌های جمعیت‌شناختی به پیش‌بینی جمعیت بر اساس فروض مختلف تا افق زمانی 1445 پرداخته شده است. نتایج پژوهش نشان داد که ساختار سنّی جمعیّت کشور از جوانی خارج شده است و در حال گذار به سمت سالخوردگی جمعیّت است. پیش‌بینی جمعیّت نشان داد که تحولات آینده باروری نقش تعیین‌کننده‌ای در تحولات جمعیّتی در آینده کشور خواهد داشت. نکات اصلی در تحولات آینده جمعیّت کشور شامل: تعادل در نرخ رشد جمعیّت کشور، افزایش تعداد سالمندان در جمعیّت، کاهش در نیروی جوان کشور به‌ویژه در سناریوی باروری پایین، کاهش تعداد سربازان مشمول خدمت سربازی و کاهش تعداد جمعیّت دارای توان نظامی در سناریوی باروری پایین می‌باشند. اگرچه پتانسیل جمعیّتی نیروی نظامی و دارای توان دفاعی کشور اندکی کاهش می‌یابد، ازآنجایی‌که امروزه توان نظامی کشورها بر اساس مهارت رقم می‌خورد، پیشنهاد می‌شود از طریق بالابردن کیفیت نیروی نظامی و با بهره‌گیری از ظرفیت سواد در آینده، از طریق کیفیت، مسئله کمیت را جبران نمود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Iran's Demographic Change and its Security Implications for the Future

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohammad Torkashvand Moradabadi 1
  • Farideh Shams Ghahfarokhi 2
  • Leila Zandinavgaran 2
1 faculty member, social sciences faculty, Yazd university
2 Demography candidate in Yazd university, social science faculty
چکیده [English]

One of the dimensions of security in each community is its military power. The population is potentially linked with defense and security in two directions: population size and structure. Despite rapid changes in the determinants of population size and structure in Iran, It is expected that in the future size and structure of the country's population change rapidly. Changes in population growth and volume have been analyzed . According to various assumptions up to the horizon of 2066 population projection was conducted. Results showed that population age structure is moving towards the aging population, Population projection by component method based on three different fertility scenarios showed that future fertility changes will play a decisive role in demographic changes in the future of the country. The main points in the future developments of the country's population are: the balance in the population growth rate, the increase in the number of elderly in the population, decline in young people's force- especially in the low fertility scenario. higher educated population, maintaining high economic levels, reducing the number of Soldiers are eligible for military service and the number of people with military capability is reduced in the low fertility scenario. Although the population potential of the country's military and defense capabilities is slightly reduced , the military force will be more educated. Since the military power of nations today is based on skills, the future status of the military force in Iran despite its reduction in quantity in terms of quality is promising.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Age Structure
  • Population Change
  • Consequences of Population Changes
  • Population and Security

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